Darwin Nunez needs some little fixes at Liverpool. This is how they can do it

In a swirling storm in Bournemouth, Darwin Nunez was his own tornado. 

His spectacular winner to send Liverpool through to the Carabao Cup quarter-finals in November was his best yet and summed up the player — a poor initial first touch followed by a magnificent finish.

It felt like he was taking a giant step towards becoming the complete No 9 for Liverpool. Instead, he has not scored for the club in the eight games since.

Nunez remains one of Jurgen Klopp’s biggest conundrums; a player of obvious quality and physical strengths but whose lack of consistency and refinement at the crucial moment lets him down too often.

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He should be more than just an agent of chaos, so where is Nunez falling short and how can he fix it? 

How much is Nunez underperforming?

The obvious way to analyse Nunez’s performance is through examining his expected goals and seeing what proportion of his opportunities he is converting.

Since his arrival on Merseyside, Nunez has been a chance-magnet. The ball always finds a way to him and he rarely hesitates to accept a shooting opportunity.

It is why his expected goals in the Premier League since the start of the 2022-23 campaign is an impressive 18.7. The problem is that, with 13 goals to his name, he is significantly underperforming his expected goals by 5.7. Only Brentford’s Neal Maupay and Everton’s Dominic Calvert-Lewin have a worse xG differential.

PL players with worst xG differential

Delving a little deeper, we can see where Nunez is getting his chances and which ones he is failing to convert. This graphic shows his non-penalty shots this season and the quality of the opportunities.

He has the instinct of being in the right place at the right time, but too often his composure has let him down. There are far too many large white circles (representing statistically good chances which were not converted) for a player in Nunez’s position.

In his last six league games, Nunez has an xG of 2.68 but has not scored once. It would be more worrying if he wasn’t getting chances at all and logic dictates that the goals will come eventually.

Hitting the woodwork — bad luck or poor finishing?

Comparisons between Nunez and Erling Haaland were rife when Manchester City played Liverpool last month and Sky Sports even dedicated specific analysis to the big chances: one which Haaland converted and another which Nunez missed.

The pair are in the top five for total shots on goal in the Premier League this season, while no player has missed more ‘big chances’ than either of them (Haaland 17; Nunez 15). But this is largely because they take more shots than any others and due to them getting the most opportunities by playing for two of the best teams in the division.

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They have also hit the woodwork more frequently than almost any other player. In all competitions, Nunez has already hit the woodwork five times this season, to add to another five from last term. Haaland, meanwhile, hit it eight times last season and has done so again four times this term.

The difference is the number of goals they have scored. Haaland, with 19 club goals in all competitions this season compared to Nunez’s seven, has scored 4.7 goals for every time he has hit the woodwork in 2023-24. Nunez, in contrast, scores 1.4 for every post or bar struck.

That seems like too high a number to simply be considered bad luck. It is certainly not for want of getting in good positions. In the most recent example, in the 4-3 win over Fulham, he shows pace and strength to hold off Tim Ream before smashing his shot against the bar.

This, however, highlights a trait in Nunez’s finishing: a tendency to prioritise power over placement, which means his efforts inevitably risk being slightly off target.

Against Fulham, aiming towards either bottom corner seems to offer a better chance of beating the goalkeeper. Similarly, in the example below against Luton Town, Nunez opts for a ferocious (and rising) drive rather than placing the ball low.

But Nunez’s shots that strike the woodwork do not always harm Liverpool. Against Aston Villa and Toulouse, the rebounds were converted by team-mates — and there is bad luck at play here as well.

The shot below against West Ham, for example, is a little unfortunate given the distance from goal and how many defenders are around him. Shooting on the half-volley — one of his strengths as a finisher — almost gets him a goal, but it rattles the post.

Likewise, in last season’s Merseyside derby, he tries his luck from a tight angle and beats Everton goalkeeper Jordan Pickford, but he is denied by the bar.

Nunez had the right to feel aggrieved at those near misses but, like the golfer who keeps lipping out with short putts, the frequency with which he is striking post or bar suggests a cooler, more precise approach to finishing may be required.

Why is Nunez getting caught offside so much?

Two of Nunez’s naturally strong attributes are his pace and movement. Through his first 10 league appearances this season, he was not flagged offside once. In the five matches since, he has catapulted to the top of the offside standings, recording 11. Haaland, in comparison, has only been caught offside nine times since coming to the Premier League.

Most offsides in the Premier League 2023-24

Reasons for being offside can vary, but Nunez’s indiscretions can largely be broken into three categories. 

The first is the instance when he tries to gain a marginal advantage in a prime scoring position in the box, only to slightly misjudge his run. This was seen in the 3-0 victory over Brentford when he edged ahead of the last defender as Dominik Szoboszlai’s shot fell into his path…

… and then tried to find space to acrobatically finish a Joel Matip knockdown. 

The second category is trying to stretch the play with his pace and movement. 

Nunez is quicker than most of the defenders he comes up against, so his instinct is to play on the shoulder to open up space behind. However, timing is crucial to doing it successfully and Nunez’s has been slightly off.

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Just before half-time at Manchester City last month, Liverpool had the perfect counter-attacking opportunity. Mohamed Salah had space to slip the ball into Nunez, who just had to stay onside to get in one-on-one. He didn’t. 

Against Fulham, there were three separate situations that all ended up with the assistant raising his flag.

It may be pure coincidence, but it could also point to an over-eagerness to get back on the goal trail after a barren run. That would be understandable, but as the margins at the sharp end of the season become increasingly tight, it is a trait Liverpool need him to eradicate. 

The third category is something which can become a bad habit if it isn’t cut out and was highlighted in last weekend’s game at Crystal Palace when Nunez was twice caught offside from long kicks by Alisson. 

Palace deployed a high line against Liverpool, conscious of not allowing themselves to be pushed too deep as they set up to contain Klopp’s side. But there should be no excuse for a player of Nunez’s experience to fail to time a run from a goalkeeper’s clearance.

None of this calls for dramatic adjustments in Nunez’s game, just a reminder of focus on the last defender and that he does not need to give himself quite so little margin for error. 

How worried should Liverpool be?

We should not overstate the problems.

Nunez had a rollercoaster first season at Liverpool, combining electric moments with baffling ones. His chaotic style earned him admirers among Liverpool’s fanbase but was less useful to Klopp, who needs his players to adhere to strict tactical instructions.

This season, he has come back a much-improved player. He is more refined, more in tune and more of the complete forward Liverpool hoped they were signing, helped partly by his work with Marcelo Bielsa with Uruguay, for whom he has four goals in his last three games. 

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How Marcelo Bielsa can help Darwin Nunez for Uruguay - and Liverpool

He is still creating pandemonium, but now only for opposition defenders. Time spent on the training field has helped him tactically adjust, become more coordinated with his team-mates, and improve his game offensively and defensively. 

Klopp acknowledged his striker has made significant strides in his all-around involvement. He described Nunez as a “ball-player” who is making himself available regularly to receive from his team-mates. 

He looks comfortable dropping into pockets to collect line-breaking passes, his touch is much more assured — whether that be his feet or chest — and he is helping his side progress the ball upfield. 

He is willing to engage in the battle with physical central defenders, embracing it (and thriving). Take this example against Wolverhampton Wanderers in which he pinned and outmuscled Craig Dawson to control the ball and turn away from the centre-back. 

He released Salah and it led to Hugo Bueno’s own goal via Harvey Elliott’s shot.

Even as his goals have dried up, Nunez has contributed. He played a key role in creating three of Liverpool’s four goals in the win over Fulham and one goal against Sheffield United. Against the latter, Nunez won the ball back and then found Szoboszlai with a cross-field pass, who made it 2-0.

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During the closing stages of the 2022-23 campaign, Klopp stated that “counter-pressing is your ticket into this team”. It felt like a message to Nunez, who was still getting to grips with Liverpool’s pressing structures and off-the-ball work-rate.

His willingness to work for the team was never in question, but the key was doing it cohesively with his team-mates. Against LASK in the Europa League this season, Nunez counter-pressed to win the ball back outside his opponents’ box. 

He remained composed to slide the ball into Salah and the Egyptian finished off the move. 

His pressing was also important against Brighton & Hove Albion. His pace meant he pressured Bart Verbruggen quickly.

The young goalkeeper had to pass the ball to Pascal Gross, who was being pressed by Szoboszlai. Gross’ return pass was intercepted by Nunez…

… and he laid the ball to Szoboszlai, who was then pulled down for a penalty. 

Nunez, despite his hefty £64million ($80.2m) transfer fee — which could rise to £85.5m — was always going to be a project player who would need refining.

Part of the issue was the language barrier. Learning English did not come easily to Nunez, but he has taken lessons twice a week and they are paying off. He looks more at home in this squad now and at ease with his role on the field.

His development is not yet complete and there remain elements that need to be finessed, but the signs of progress this season cannot be ignored. Now he just needs the goals to flow.

(Top photos: All Getty Images)

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